Nearly three out of four energy professionals expect renewable energy to overtake coal as India’s primary source of electricity by 2035, according to a new survey conducted by The Energy & Climate Initiatives Society (ENCIS). The survey, which covered 250 professionals across Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru and Chennai, indicates growing industry confidence that India’s power transition could move faster than current planning projections.
The survey found that 28% of respondents expect renewables to overtake coal as early as 2030, while nearly 75% see the crossover happening by 2035. The findings highlight a widening gap between industry expectations and India’s current electricity planning pathway, which continues to project coal as the largest contributor to electricity generation through 2035-36.
India has already crossed an important milestone in its energy transition, with non-fossil sources accounting for more than half of the country’s installed power capacity. As of July 31, 2026, India had 291.7 GW of renewable capacity and 300.5 GW of total non-fossil capacity. However, generation remains heavily dependent on thermal power. During FY2025-26, thermal sources generated approximately 1,307 billion units of electricity, compared with around 478 billion units from large hydro and other renewable sources combined.
Bhupinder Singh Bhalla, IAS (Retd), Honorary Chairman, Bharat Electricity Council, and former Secretary, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, said the next stage of the transition would depend on India’s ability to convert variable renewable capacity into dependable and affordable electricity.
“Renewables are already the dominant destination for new investment. The defining question is whether India can convert variable capacity into dependable, affordable electricity when required,” Bhalla said, highlighting the need for storage, transmission, flexible generation, responsive demand and sophisticated electricity markets.
The survey identifies solar energy as the strongest growth driver for India’s future power mix, with 61% of respondents selecting it as their preferred source of expansion. Wind energy was identified by 14%, while green hydrogen accounted for 11% and hydro and biomass together accounted for approximately 12%.
Climate and Net Zero commitments emerged as the leading driver of renewable growth, cited by 32% of respondents, followed by declining renewable energy costs at 27%. The findings indicate that both policy commitments and improving project economics are strengthening the industry’s confidence in renewable energy.
At the same time, respondents identified significant challenges that could determine the pace of the transition. Grid integration and reliability emerged as the biggest barrier, cited by 29% of participants. Financing gaps were identified by 24%, while land acquisition and permitting challenges accounted for 18%.
PK Pujari, IAS (Retd), Honorary Chairman, ENCIS, former Secretary, Ministry of Power and former Chairperson of the CERC, said India’s transition should not be viewed as a simple competition between coal and renewable energy.
“Coal’s role will evolve before it declines, from the default source of energy towards a flexible provider of adequacy and strategic reliability,” Pujari said, adding that renewable energy would become predominant only when the power system can absorb, store, transmit and dispatch it without creating unacceptable costs or risks for consumers.
According to the Central Electricity Authority’s projections, India could have around 1,121 GW of total power capacity by 2035-36, with non-fossil sources accounting for about 70% of installed capacity. However, coal is still projected to provide nearly half of electricity generation, while renewables are expected to contribute around 43%.
The contrast between these projections and the ENCIS survey results suggests that industry expectations are increasingly moving ahead of the country’s existing planning assumptions.
“The survey reveals a sector that sees the destination clearly and the execution gap honestly,” said Abhishek Bhatnagar, Director General, ENCIS. “India does not lack ambition or technology; it needs a stronger architecture of delivery linking policy, capital, infrastructure, institutions and markets.”
The findings will feed into discussions at Bharat Electricity, POWERGEN India and Indian Utility Week 2026, scheduled to take place from September 1-3, 2026, at Yashobhoomi, IICC, New Delhi. The integrated event is expected to bring together more than 15,000 energy professionals, over 250 exhibitors and more than 150 industry leaders to discuss India’s evolving power and clean energy landscape.
The ENCIS survey ultimately points to a transition that may be less about whether renewables will overtake coal and more about how quickly India can build the infrastructure and market architecture required to make that transition reliable. With renewable capacity expanding rapidly, the decisive factors are increasingly likely to be storage, transmission, grid flexibility, market reforms and the modernisation of existing thermal assets.
For India, the next phase of the energy transition will therefore be measured not simply in gigawatts of renewable capacity added, but in the ability to deliver affordable, reliable and increasingly clean electricity whenever consumers need it.